COVID-19 Scorecard 4-11

COVID-19 Scorecard 4-10

COVID-19 Scorecard 4-9

The numbers continue to be collected. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) continues to inch upwards and today is at 5.85%. It is likely we will end up having to calculate a plus and minus error rate for the CFR.

CFR is calculated simply by dividing the number of casualties by the number of cases and multiply by 100 for percent format. oth the number fo cases and number of casualties are not being reported consistently.

Factors that effect the confirmed cases:
Cases with minor symptoms are not always being tested therefore not counted.
Many countries are only counting cases when and if they are admitted to a hospital.
Many people with symptoms so mild their body successfully overcomes the virus and they never realize they were infected let alone getting tested and confirmed.

Factors now effecting the casualty count:
A patient who dies while infected is counted as a casualty regardless of the actual cause of death. For example terminally ill cancer patients who pass because of their cancer are counted as a COVID-19 casualty if they tested positive for the virus.

As a result of these discrepancies the casualty count is likely lower then the current 5.85% rate calculated today with the John Hopkins University data. 

COVID-19 Scorecard 4-8

United States Test over 2 Million people for COVID-19 virus.

The United States has tested 2,082,443 people for the COVID-19 virus. This is approximately 150k tests per day.

COVID-19 Scorecard 4-7

The United States has conducted 1,938,109 COVID-19 tests. Germany is the next highest with 918,460. The US still lags behind in tests per million people having tested 5,855 per million vs Germany which has a rate of 10,962 per million. 

Will warmer weather stop the spread of COVID-19? Experts pretty much agree warmer weather and higher humidity will slow the transmission but not enough to decrease the number of cases. We are in for the long haul and can expect a bump when social restrictions are lifted.  

COVID-19 Scorecard 4-6

Big drop in Daily Deltas for the US but I suspect that is just a result of the reporting and we will see it made up in tomorrow's numbers. Still one can be hopeful so don't let my low expectations on the drop diminish your hopes.

The US is finally on the right track in regards with testing success.

Stay safe Be smart and keep your distance.

COVID-19 Scorecard 4-5

The Daily Delta for New Cases in the US continues to spike then show a downward trend. The spikes can occur for a variety of reasons.

1. New testing administered 
2. New results being reported 
3. A new region being infected 
4. A sudden rise in cases

We can speculate all we want but it will prove nothing. Data is aggressively being collected and each day more information is revealed. The best medical scientists are in full gear to uncover the mysteries of COVID-19. 

COVID-19 Scorecard 4-4

COVID-19 Scorecard 4-3

 

Covid-19 now reaches 1 million cases worldwide.  The daily change or delta of US cases continues to be erratic. This could be the result of a lapse in collection procedures or perhaps a new region flare up of infected. 

Be smart, Be Safe. Pick up the phone and call a loved one.

COVID-10 Scorecard 4-2

The Case Fatality Rate is at 5.09% and the percent of serious or critical active cases is 5%.

Assumptions using the numbers: In the USA there are 201,366 active cases. Since 5% of active cases are serious or critical they would likely require admittance to an intensive care unit. This means at minimum there are 10,069 COVID-19 patients.

On March 18 the American Hospital Association stated a CDC report which claimed from Feb 12 and March 16 21% to 31% of US COVID-19 patients required hospitalization and 5% to 12% were admitted to intensive care. Based on todays number of active cases (201,366) provided the CDC reported percentages remain the same 42,289 - 62,424 patients require hospitalization and 10, 069 - 24,164 need intensive care.

The actual number of hospitalizations today are too vague to determine how many patients are in the hospital.

The US has 5,198 community hospitals There is a total of 924,107 hospital staffed beds. The number of Intensive Care Beds is based on type of intensive care. The breakdown of intensive care beds:

Type of Intensive Care          Number of Beds
   Medical-Surgical                         55,663
   Cardiac                                        15,160
   Neonatal                                      22,721
   Pediatric                                        5,115
   Burn Care                                     1,198
   Other                                            7,419

These are gross numbers and account for the entire US. They do not reflect each region, state and community hospitals where overcrowding and bed shortages will occur. Also these numbers only reflect beds not necessary equipment like surgical masks and ventilators.

The bottom line is be safe. Take care of yourself. Eat properly. Get plenty of sleep. Stay hydrated and stay away.

COVID-19 Scorecard 4-1

 

The hope from the numbers of the past few days showing the USA curve flattening were diminished yesterday as new reported cases jumped by 4,445 cases.

As hospitals continue to get slammed American industry is working together to produce necessary equipment. Ford and GE Healthcare have partnered together and began converting Fords Rawsonville Michigan Components plant. The plant will be producing the Airon Corp's Model A-E ventilator. Medicl experts confirm this model can meet the neeeds of COVID-19 patients in an emergency or intensive care unit. The Model A-E ventilator is easy to use and can be quickly deployed.

Production is expected to start April 20. Ford is stating 50,000 ventilators will be produced in the next 100 days as the plant is set up. Once completed Ford believes they will be able to make 30,000 a month. 

COVID-19 Scorecard 3.31

The delta of US Daily New cases is slowing. As a result the curve is flattening slightly. The USA Delta of Daily New Cases is now included on our daily report and can be reviewed below.

The collection of data may cause variations in the results. Reports may not consistently be sent or received by the collecting services. This may cause variations such as the one seen on March 21 when new cases dropped 763 from the previous day.

The increase in numbers does appear to be slowing. The data is not consistent enough to raise hopes too high.

COVID-19 Scorecard 3.30

 It is too soon to tell for certainty but there is a glimmer of hope in the US numbers. The increase in new cases seems to be slowing down. Hopefully this indicates the widespread social distancing is working to slow this thing down..

COVID-19 Scorecard 3-29